Sleep
Night structure Timing, continuity, and recovery context stay visible before any interpretation is attempted.Longitudinal Health Signals
Small changes become visible when repeated over time.
The flap of a butterfly’s wings can be felt on the other side of the world.
Butterfly Effect studies how sleep, overnight physiology, movement, context, and daily self report change within the same person. Its engine separates observation from interpretation and keeps quality, uncertainty, and evidence attached to every research output.
Visual System
How a repeated observation becomes a reviewable signal.
Observed streams remain separate until quality, timing, and provenance are good enough to interpret.
Physiology
Overnight load Physiological traces are treated as signal candidates, not explanations on their own.Movement
Daily rhythm Movement patterns help locate context and burden, especially when compared against the same person.Self report
Daily state Subjective labels give the engine a human anchor for stress, clarity, burden, and recovery.CoverageUsable nights, missingness, and minimum exposure.Block when insufficient
TimingNight windows, next-day labels, and temporal alignment.Block or downgrade
ProvenanceSource, schema, transforms, and model version.Required for review
StabilityReplay behaviour, route dependency, and uncertainty.Caps confidence
Rule 01
Repeated beats matter The visual system should make longitudinal change easier to read than isolated values.Rule 02
Quality is part of the message A signal is not shown as meaningful unless its quality state is carried with it.Rule 03
Limits stay attached Research-only outputs remain useful only if uncertainty and evidence limits stay visible.From Signal To Surface
From daily life to a bounded research output.
This visual map is the simplest entry into the system: what is observed, how quality is controlled, how the engine routes and audits interpretation, and what the public surface returns for review.
Visual Map
One movement from daily life to reviewable signal.
The project is not a single score. It is a controlled interpretation path: repeated observations are cleaned, routed through the right layer, and returned with their limits still attached.
Observed streams remain separate until quality is checked.
Only usable segments move into interpretation.
Outputs stay research only unless future validation supports more.
Visible cards
40 night, event, daily, and family surfaces exposed without flattening them into one false product claimAccepted units
15 cards or families with signals the current evidence can defend inside their intended scopeExperimental units
18 research layers that remain useful but still fall below deployment or transport thresholdsMain bottleneck
Night signal portability the next scientific challenge is proving that night-based patterns remain meaningful across participants, cohorts, devices, and datasetsAudience Entry
The same project has three different public reading paths.
This switcher keeps the entry point readable. It lets a new visitor move straight into the right surface instead of reading the entire stack in the wrong order.
Start here if you want the method
What this path gives you
- Research postureStrongest in `stress`, explicit limits elsewhere.
- Live layersOpen the governed dashboards and route cards
- ToneMethod first, no flattened “one model” story.
Start here if you want a collaboration path
- One-pagerOpen the institutional entry point
- Data requirementsOpen the technical data pack
- Pilot protocolOpen the default first-pilot frame
What this path gives you
- Serious askOne cohort, one endpoint family, pre-screen before transfer.
- GovernanceOpen the intake and linkage gate
- TargetingSee the current shortlist and raw-night benchmark
Start here if you want the human-facing layer
- Participant ReturnOpen the governed weekly return surface
- DirectoryOpen the live participant outputs
- Primary sampleOpen the first weekly report
What this path gives you
- No sleep app framingLongitudinal review relative to baseline, not single night scoring.
- Professional companionSame payload, stricter technical view, clean handoff formats.
- Governed scopeOnly audited nightly stress routes can enter this layer.
Research posture
One project, five visible layers, five different evidentiary roles.
Once the core idea is clear, the rest of the site stays readable by showing where each layer is strong, where it is limited, and what kind of claim it can legitimately carry today.
Night Layer
Within-cohort interpretation
High · Held-out R² 0.4350
Limited
Operational
Limited by night signal portability
Event Layer
Acute stress portability
High · R² 0.3164
Portable
Separate stack
Must stay separate from night claims
Daily Challenge Layer
Temporal challenge layer
Moderate · R² 0.1685
Challenge only
Challenge
Good within cohort, weak across cohorts
Non-Stress Daily Layer
Supportive daily reading
High · R² 0.3454
Challenge only
Mixed support
Support visible, portability limited
Non-Stress Portable Families
Portable research family
Low · Portable mean R² 0.0202
Emerging
Research only
Below transport readiness
Pages
The home stays light. The detail lives on dedicated pages.
The front page should orient, not flood. System structure, validation, evidence, and live analytical views now sit on their own pages so the entry point stays readable.
Pitch
Scientific Pitch
A compact 3-5 minute reading path for the scientific case, the claim boundary, and the studies currently in process.
Open pageSystem
System
How the project is structured across night, event, daily, and portable-family layers, and why those boundaries matter.
Open pageBuilt
Built
What is already implemented: nightly routes, event stress, daily challenge layers, governance, evidence, and support.
Open pageValidation
Validation
What the current evidence can support, what it cannot, and where transport still fails across cohorts.
Open pageEvidence
Evidence
The open cohorts, support cohorts, and evidence-linked reporting stack underneath the public surface.
Open pageParticipant
Participant Return
A participant facing research return layer and a professional review companion built on approved nightly stress routes, not on a separate consumer stack.
Open pageStudy
Participant Study
The prospective pilot workflow: short daily labels now, wearable export later, and governed within-person fusion after the collection window.
Open pageViews
Views
Direct access to the live dashboards and layer-specific surfaces already materialized in the repo.
Open page