System

A layered research system, not a single predictive surface.

Butterfly Effect only stays credible if the system remains stratified in public: nightly routes, event stress, daily challenge layers, portable families, participant return, professional review, and diagnostic readiness planning each sit under different evidentiary rules.

Engine Console

The motor reads like a controlled pathway from raw life data to reviewable interpretation.

This visual layer makes the architecture more explicit: intake, quality control, route selection, evidence attachment, review surfaces, and future validation readiness stay separate instead of collapsing into a single black-box output.

The visual rule is simple: every interpretation must keep its source, quality status, route, evidence, and claim boundary attached.

Control layer

Quality before inference Missingness, timing, participant history, preprocessing contracts, and leakage checks decide whether a route can speak.
gate first

Interpretation layer

Routes stay separated Night, event, daily, portable family, and diagnostic readiness outputs carry different evidentiary rules.
stratified

Review layer

No naked score Every output keeps uncertainty, confidence, route provenance, evidence rank, and future validation needs visible.
bounded

Future layer

Diagnostic path remains conditional The motor can prepare a future clinical pathway, but only external validation, ethics, and clinical ground truth can move it there.
not yet

Control Board

A practical operating layer for deciding what the motor is allowed to say.

This is where a dashboard-style UI helps: it turns the architecture into visible controls, so quality, route choice, confidence and claim boundary can be read at a glance.

01 separated
Intake registry

Daily states, sleep physiology, movement, context and events enter as separate streams before any interpretation is built.

daily recordsleepcontext
mapped
02 blocking
Quality gate

Missingness, timing, preprocessing contracts and leakage checks decide whether a route can produce an output.

missingnesstimingleakage
gate first
03 routed
Interpretation router

Night, event, daily, portable family, professional review and diagnostic readiness remain different lanes.

nighteventportable
stratified
04 bounded
Review boundary

Confidence, uncertainty, provenance, audience and evidence rank stay attached to the interpretation.

confidencelimitsreview
attached

Engine

The motor is an interpretation stack, not one model.

The system now covers the full chain from data collection to review planning: intake, feature contracts, quality gates, route specific inference, route stability, feature dependency audit, confidence scoring, evidence attachment, governance, participant return, professional companion, diagnostic readiness, validation ladder, and clinical ground truth planning.

01 · Intake

Longitudinal participant record

Daily self reports, subjective cognitive state, context, intervention events, and later sleep and physiology linkage are treated as repeated evidence, not as isolated answers.

study portal daily check-ins

02 · Control

Quality and preprocessing gates

Missingness, timing, signal quality, feature contracts, leakage controls, and portable preprocessing checks constrain what can be interpreted.

quality gate contract-bound

03 · Inference

Route-specific reports

Each interpretation keeps its route, target horizon, baseline, drivers, domain findings, confidence, interval logic, caveats, and provenance attached.

structured report provenance

04 · Stability

Route stability suite

Registered routes are audited across validation signal, missingness, participant spread, interval coverage, feature complexity, and temporal segments before they are treated as dependable.

route audit stability score

05 · Dependency

Feature and domain ablation

The motor tests which domains each model depends on, separating sleep, activity, physiology, self report context, portable domains, and measurement quality without turning dependency into causal claims.

domain audit not causal

06 · Confidence

Engine confidence score

Each route and report can carry a research confidence score that combines data quality, model validation, personal history, uncertainty, stability, and domain dependency.

0-100 score research only

07 · Governance

Evidence rank and release gates

Route cards, held-out replay, calibration, robustness audits, portability status, and release gates decide whether a signal stays experimental, support only, or can be used in a bounded surface. External open research datasets are used as technical benchmarks for model behavior, missingness, portability, and participant-facing interpretation; they are not presented as clinical validation.

accepted experimental support

08 · Return

Participant and professional outputs

The same governed payload can become a participant research return or a professional companion, while preserving limits and avoiding consumer scoring.

participant return professional companion

09 · Validation

Diagnostic readiness and validation ladder

Internal gates now classify review readiness, map signals to research phenotypes including neurocognitive, neurological, and rehabilitation contexts, and identify external anchors needed before any future clinical claim.

research only not diagnostic

Access

Operational pages stay visible without crowding the main route.

The header now carries the strongest public reading path. Built, Participant, and Views remain available as working surfaces for people who want to inspect what is already implemented.

Layers

Architecture determines what can be claimed.

The project is public-facing only if the structural boundaries stay explicit. Night, event, daily, and portable-family layers can coexist on the site without being flattened into one false universal model.

Layer composition

Accepted, experimental, and support surfaces by layer.

Night Layer Nightly routes are the core operational layer. They carry held-out signal, interval calibration, governance, and deployment status.
4 accepted 7 experimental 1 support
Event Layer Event models remain separate from nightly interpretation. They are portable for acute physiological stress, not for next-day sleep claims.
3 accepted 2 experimental 1 support
Daily Challenge Layer Daily challenge cohorts show where temporal memory helps within cohort, even when transport still fails across cohorts.
2 accepted 4 experimental 2 support
Non-Stress Daily Layer This layer keeps anxiety, depression, and somatic support visible without overstating clinical portability.
6 accepted 4 experimental 1 support
Non-Stress Portable Families Portable non-stress families remain research references. Anxiety is closest to usable; depression and somatic burden are still below transport readiness.
0 accepted 1 experimental 2 support

Atlas

Each layer sits on a different methodological timescale.

This atlas keeps the system legible at a glance. Acute event models, nightly operational routes, daily challenge layers, and portable families do not belong to the same analytic timescale or communication frame.

Layer Primary timescale Interpretive output Role in surface
Event Layer Acute stress portability
Acute
Portable acute physiological stress outputs, kept separate from next-day sleep claims.
Portable event
Night Layer Within-cohort interpretation
Nightly
Governed nightly route interpretations with held-out metrics, calibration, and deployment status.
Operational core
Daily Challenge Layer Temporal challenge layer
Daily
Temporal challenge outputs that show where within-cohort memory adds signal.
Challenge layer
Non-Stress Daily Layer Supportive daily reading
Daily
Supportive daily readings for anxiety, depression, and somatic burden without portable clinical claims.
Support layer
Non-Stress Portable Families Portable research family
Portable family
Research-only family portability outputs used to study cross-cohort transport outside route deployment.
Research family

Structure

The public surface should read like a ranked atlas, not a product pitch.

This page is intentionally more structural and technical. It explains method, scope, and rank before any layer is opened or any output is interpreted.

night

Night Layer

Nightly routes are the core operational layer. They carry held-out signal, interval calibration, governance, and deployment status.

4 accepted 7 experimental 1 support

event

Event Layer

Event models remain separate from nightly interpretation. They are portable for acute physiological stress, not for next-day sleep claims.

3 accepted 2 experimental 1 support

daily

Daily Challenge Layer

Daily challenge cohorts show where temporal memory helps within cohort, even when transport still fails across cohorts.

2 accepted 4 experimental 2 support

nonstress_daily

Non-Stress Daily Layer

This layer keeps anxiety, depression, and somatic support visible without overstating clinical portability.

6 accepted 4 experimental 1 support

nonstress_family

Non-Stress Portable Families

Portable non-stress families remain research references. Anxiety is closest to usable; depression and somatic burden are still below transport readiness.

0 accepted 1 experimental 2 support

Principles

The site should carry the method, not decorate it.

The strongest public surface preserves structure, evidentiary rank, and limitations in the main reading path rather than hiding them in technical footnotes.

Subtle signal, delayed effect

The project starts from a simple premise: small variations in sleep and physiology can accumulate into visible changes in stress, symptoms, and day-to-day burden.

Interpretation before diagnosis

The surface is built to organize and explain signal while preparing a cautious future validation route, not to pretend that current models already justify diagnostic language or universal clinical claims.

Evidence before expansion

Where signal is strong, the site says so. Where portability fails or outcome equivalence is weak, those limits stay visible instead of being hidden behind presentation.